Markets crawled higher on Thursday as traders tried to make sense of a messy session. Nvidia’s blowout earnings failed to spark a rally, Walmart got punished for weak guidance, and oil whipsawed on conflicting reports about U.S.-Iran peace talks. The Dow eked out a new record close, but the overall tone was cautious.
Market Snapshot
| INDEX | CLOSE | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,445.72 | +0.17% |
| Nasdaq | 26,293.10 | +0.09% |
| Dow Jones | 50,285.66 | +0.55% |
| Bitcoin | $77,704 | +0.2% |
| Ethereum | $2,127 | +0.8% |
What Moved Markets
Nvidia beat and nobody cared. Revenue surged 85% year over year to $81.62 billion, clearing the $78.86 billion estimate. The company announced an $80 billion buyback and hiked its dividend from $0.01 to $0.25 per share. But guidance didn’t hit the upper range of analyst expectations, and the stock slipped 1.8% on the day. The “sell the news” reflex in AI names is getting predictable.
Quantum computing had a moment. Reports surfaced that the government plans to award $2 billion in grants to nine quantum computing firms, with equity stakes included. IBM jumped over 12%, Rigetti popped 15%, D-Wave surged 17%, and Quantum Computing rallied nearly 14%. Real money flowing into quantum is a signal worth tracking.
Walmart stumbled on guidance. The mega retailer beat headline earnings numbers but issued full-year guidance of $2.75 to $2.85 EPS, well below the $2.91 consensus. Management flagged elevated fuel costs as a drag. Shares dropped 7%. Costco fell 2% in sympathy. Intuit also took a hit, dropping after announcing a 17% workforce reduction.
Oil stayed volatile on Iran headlines. Crude whipsawed as conflicting reports about U.S.-Iran negotiations hit the wires. WTI settled near $98 per barrel, with Brent around $104. Trump said he would wait “a few more days” for the right answers from Tehran. Every headline moved prices, and that pattern is not going away anytime soon.
Worth Watching
U.S.-Iran talks on a short clock. Trump gave Tehran a window of “a few days” to respond. Iran says it is reviewing the latest U.S. proposal. If talks collapse, expect oil to spike and equities to sell off. If a resolution materializes, the opposite. This is the single biggest macro variable right now.
SpaceX IPO taking shape. Goldman Sachs is reportedly leading the SpaceX IPO, which could value the company above $1 trillion. Between SpaceX and OpenAI both eyeing public listings, the IPO market is about to get very crowded at the top. Watch for capital rotation out of existing large caps.
New Fed Chair finding his footing. Kevin Warsh is signaling a shift in central bank thinking. With oil-driven inflation concerns rising and bond yields creeping up (10-year near 4.6%), the Fed’s next moves matter more than usual. No meeting imminent, but the tone is shifting.
Bottom Line
This was a “something for everyone” session. Bulls got a new Dow record and quantum computing fireworks. Bears got Nvidia selling off on a beat and Walmart warning about costs. The real story is oil: it is driving everything from inflation expectations to bond yields to sector rotation. If you hold positions, the U.S.-Iran situation is the one thing worth losing sleep over. Everything else is noise until that gets resolved.
