Stocks eked out gains on Wednesday after a wild ride driven by conflicting headlines about a potential U.S.-Iran deal. Markets opened lower on rising oil prices and Treasury yields, reversed higher on reports a final draft resolution was near, then wobbled again when Iran pushed back. In the end, the major indexes finished slightly green, but the day belonged to headline traders, not fundamentals.
Market Snapshot
| INDEX | CLOSE | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,445.72 | +0.17% |
| Nasdaq | 26,293.10 | +0.09% |
| Dow Jones | 50,285.66 | +0.55% |
| Bitcoin | $77,704 | +0.2% |
| Ethereum | $2,127 | +0.8% |
What Moved Markets
Iran peace talks: another false start. Reports surfaced midday that a final U.S.-Iran draft resolution was near, brokered through Pakistan. Stocks leapt, oil fell below $100 a barrel, and Treasury yields pulled back. Then Iran’s Supreme Leader issued a directive that enriched uranium must stay in the country, directly contradicting a key U.S. demand. Stocks gave back some gains, and the day ended with the same uncertainty it started with. If you feel like you have seen this movie before, you have.
IBM stole the show. Shares of IBM surged over 12% after the U.S. Commerce Department announced a $1 billion grant (part of a broader $2 billion quantum computing package) to accelerate quantum development. The deal includes equity stakes for the government. Other quantum names like D-Wave (+18%), Rigetti (+15%), and IonQ (+8%) rode the wave higher. Goldman Sachs also rallied nearly 6%, making it the top Dow performer alongside IBM.
Nvidia shrugged off a solid quarter. Despite beating earnings expectations the night before, Nvidia finished slightly lower as guidance didn’t quite reach the upper end of analyst estimates. The stock’s muted reaction dragged on the broader semiconductor space and kept the Nasdaq’s gains to a bare minimum. At this point, “good but not perfect” from Nvidia is enough to disappoint.
Walmart warned, Intuit slashed. Walmart fell about 7% after reiterating a full-year outlook that already underwhelmed last quarter. Higher fuel costs from the Iran conflict are eating into margins. Meanwhile, Intuit cratered nearly 19% after announcing it would cut 17% of its workforce, one of the sharper one-day drops in the S&P 500. Deere also slid nearly 7% on a sluggish agriculture outlook.
Worth Watching
Memorial Day weekend ahead. U.S. markets are closed Monday, May 25. Expect thinner volume on Friday as traders head out early. If you are holding positions over the long weekend, keep in mind that Iran headlines could move futures Sunday night.
SpaceX IPO momentum. SpaceX filed its S-1 on Wednesday and launched Starship Flight 12 on Thursday. Analysts are projecting a potential $1.7 trillion valuation and up to $80 billion raised, which would make it the largest IPO in history. That kind of capital demand could create pressure on other large-cap tech names.
New Fed Chair Warsh in focus. Kevin Warsh is settling into the top seat at the Fed, and early signals suggest a shift in central bank ideology. With the 10-year yield hovering around 4.57% and oil still above $100, his stance on rates and inflation will matter more than usual heading into summer.
Bottom Line
The market wants to go higher, but it keeps running into the same wall: oil prices, bond yields, and an Iran situation that has no clear resolution. Wednesday’s late-session bounce was built on rumors, not substance. If you are long U.S. equities, the trend is still your friend (the S&P just posted its seventh straight positive week), but the quality of the rallies is getting thinner. IBM and a few quantum names carried the Dow. The Nasdaq barely moved despite a solid Nvidia print. That is not exactly broad-based strength. Stay patient, stay diversified, and do not trade on Iran headlines. They have been wrong more often than right.
